First modeling since June has suggested that Ontario is facing a substantial fourth wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. If things are not brought under control, it might see the daily count of new cases reach more than 9,000 by October. The modeling was prepared by Ontario's Science Advisory Table.
In an
optimistic scenario, if there is a 30 percent reduction in contacts, the case
counts might start declining within a few days and dip under 500 by October.
A
presentation that accompanied these projections warned, "Our models,
federal models, and models in other jurisdictions predict a substantial fourth
wave. The fourth wave will affect all age groups with the potential to exceed
ICU capacity."
The
modeling says Delta variant and a high number of unvaccinated Ontarians might
lead to a "rapid increase in the number of seriously ill people needing
hospital care as workplaces and education re-open in September." If that
happens, the patients in the ICU might exceed the peak of the third wave, 900
in a worst-case scenario.
It also
says that the worst-case scenario for Ontario might be avoided if residents
reduce the contacts to 70 percent of pre-pandemic levels and vaccination rates
keep on improving.
Highlighting
that a lockdown can be avoided, the Scientific Director of the Science Table,
Dr. Peter Jüni, said, "The vaccines have helped us tremendously. But in
addition to that, we need to get a little better than what we're doing right
now in terms of restrictions. And that's also where vaccine certificates come in
now. If we continue to do the right thing and use vaccine certificates smartly,
this will go in absolutely the right direction."
The
forecasters also recommend that large gatherings can be limited, and work from
home arrangements should continue. Dr. Eileen de Villa, Toronto's Medical
Officer of Health, said, "I will say that this doesn't really surprise me,
and I would think that those who've been listening and hearing what we've been
saying in terms of public health advice won't be particularly surprised either."
"They
are talking about the need for greater uptake of a vaccine and reduced
interaction, and we have said all along when it comes to COVID-19 the more
people interact with each other, the more they socialize, the more likelihood
you have of transmission, and this is particularly the case where you have
unvaccinated people."
The
modelers also noted that they "do not expect to see the same proportion of
severely ill cases in the vaccinated," but they also said that to protect
the healthcare system truly there is a need to ensure a "substantial
acceleration" in the number of Ontarians who have two shots.
A
spokesperson for Minister of Health Christine Elliott stated the Ford
government believes that Ontario is "is currently trending between the projected
medium and best-case scenario" and expects the recent announcement about a
vaccine certificate system to "further improve" its trajectory.
The
modelers did warn that vaccination alone won't be enough to protect the
population, especially against the Delta variant, which experts believe has a
reproductive number between six and eight without proper public health
measures.
Read more
about the government of Canada's response to COVID-19
Here are a
few tips on preventing the spread of coronavirus.
-by Shruti , CNS Canadian News Source
Source:
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-is-facing-substantial-fourth-wave-of-covid-19-first-modelling-since-june-suggests-1.5570062